realistic expectations

[aubiefifty 16,798]

Sports

AL.com All-Access: What should realistic expectations be at Auburn?

Updated on October 17, 2017 at 2:00 PM Posted on October 17, 2017 at 9:45 AM

80

Gallery: Auburn at LSU: Oct. 14, 2017

56 shares

By Creg Stephenson

cstephenson@al.com

Saturday was another example of how maddening it must be to be an Auburn football fan.

As we know, a solidly favored Tigers team went into Baton Rouge, jumped out to a 20-0 lead and somehow lost 27-23. It was an incredibly frustrating day for Auburn, and led to renewed calls for Gus Malzahn to lose his job (some more rational than others).

But what if I told you that we might just be seeing what Auburn is and what it nearly always has been? The Tigers are 5-2 this season, which projects to 8.57 victories in a 12-game regular season, 9.28 victories if the Tigers were to win a bowl game.

If you break down the previous 10 seasons (2007-2016), Auburn totaled 82 wins, an average of 8.2 per season. There were some very high highs during that period -- a 14-0 record and a national championship in 2010, plus a 12-2 run to an SEC title in 2013 -- but also some very low lows -- a 3-9 mark that led to the ouster of Gene Chizik in 2012, a 5-7 record that cost Tommy Tuberville his job in 2008.

And it's not just the last 10 years. If you take the 10 years before that (1997-2006), Auburn totaled 84 wins -- 8.4 per season.

The 10 years before that? From 1987-96, Auburn totaled 83 wins (8.3 per year).

From 1977-86? 77 wins (7.7 per year). From 1967-76, 71 wins (7.1 per year). (Note: Teams typically played fewer games in the 1960s, 70s and 80s than they do now).

And lest you think I'm using arbitrary end points, it's largely true of any 10-year period in Auburn football over the last half-century.

I think most of us would agree that the 1980s were a glorious time for Auburn football, when Pat Dye led the Tigers to four SEC titles and a near national championship in 1983. If you take any 10-year period from that era, you get between 8 and 9 wins every year.

Here's the list:

1982-91 -- 89 wins, 8.9

1983-92 -- 85 wins, 8.5

1984-93 -- 85 wins, 8.5

1985-94 -- 85 wins, 8.5

1986-95 -- 85 wins, 8.5

Again, while you had glorious seasons such as 11-1 in 1983 and 11-0 in 1993, you also had clunkers like 5-6 in 1981 and back-to-back 5-win seasons in 1991 and 1992.

(If you use just 1983-90, Auburn averaged 9.6 wins while playing 12 games every year, but it's worth noting that Alabama football was in post-Bryant turmoil during that time).

Auburn's history has been that it will most of the time be an above-average team, and every five years or so make a run at a championship. Maybe after the three-game surge against Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Missouri (plus a close loss to Clemson), Tigers fans thought this would be one of those years.

But after Clemson lost at Syracuse and the bottom of the SEC continues to show its weakness, maybe Auburn is simply an above-average team again. Dreams of knocking off unbeaten Georgia and Alabama late in the season appear less and less likely to become reality.

Can Auburn football be better than it is this year? Certainly, history has shown that.

Can Auburn football be better than it is this year on a consistent basis over a long period of time? History would suggest that's unlikely.

None of this is to imply Auburn fans should accept blowing a 20-0 lead against a team coached by Ed Orgeron. But the road of Auburn football history is paved with similar maddening inconsistency.

What do you think? I'll take your questions and comments on this or anything else on your mind beginning at 10 a.m.

[CAReeves2010 627]

I think Mr Stephenson needs to get a life

[aubiefifty 16,798]

thanx ca for realizing i just print some things even if i disagree with them.

 

[AUFlyer99 647]

The talent level under Chiz and Gus is collectively higher than it was under previous staffs.  On-field results should reflect that, and that's where the problem lies.  

[TigerFanAU 586]

32 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

Can Auburn football be better than it is this year on a consistent basis over a long period of time? History would suggest that's unlikely.

College football as a whole is MUCH different than it was before. So much has changed in the last decade.  College football has never been commercialized like it is today.  Enromous TV network contracts, large bowl payouts, huge coaching salaries, the SEC facilities arms race.  Its never been as hot as it is today.  Gone are the days of JP Sports.  Regardless of what Alabama is doing, Auburn is a very attractive job and we can pay the highest salaries if needed. Also, Auburn now operates a Top 10 largest Athletic Department budget.  This is not the small town agricultural college in middle of nowhere like it has been in the past.  Its a quickly growing town attracting students from all over, young families, retirees, and retired athletes.  There's a reason coaches from the past still call it home and live there.  So with all that's going on, and how the town is booming, Auburn is more attractive now for a head coach than its ever been before. I realize the historical stats suggest we're destined for an 8-win season coach, however with all the growth going on in the SEC and the town of Auburn, I'm confident we can attract the best coaches and have them bring their families to Auburn and call it home.

[aucom96 1,618]

If we're an 8 win team, we're paying far too much for it. There is no universal law that sets in stone that "this team is an 8 win team" and "this team is a national champion". FSU was a girls school and football afterthought. Tulane was once a strong football program. Notre Dame used to be the pinnacle of college football. If Auburn wants to get their investment, they have to invest wisely and operate with the same level of professionalism. Instead we get low leverage head coaches that our brain trust of good ol' boys can bullet-point which flavor-of-the-month coordinators, former Auburn greats and general playing philosophy they expect to see on Saturdays...all with a top ten paycheck. If the best we can do is high school coaches and failed coordinator projects, then pay accordingly and stop trying to act like Auburn is elite. If we want to be elite, we've got to act like it. 

[AUApostle 7,651]

10-2 or better with the occasional 9-3.

[Gowebb11 9,326]

8 minutes ago, aucom96 said:

If we're an 8 win team, we're paying far too much for it. There is no universal law that sets in stone that "this team is an 8 win team" and "this team is a national champion". FSU was a girls school and football afterthought. Tulane was once a strong football program. Notre Dame used to be the pinnacle of college football. If Auburn wants to get their investment, they have to invest wisely and operate with the same level of professionalism. Instead we get low leverage head coaches that our brain trust of good ol' boys can bullet-point which flavor-of-the-month coordinators, former Auburn greats and general playing philosophy they expect to see on Saturdays...all with a top ten paycheck. If the best we can do is high school coaches and failed coordinator projects, then pay accordingly and stop trying to act like Auburn is elite. If we want to be elite, we've got to act like it. 

We haven't had back to back 10 win seasons in 30 years. So we're definitely not a 10 win a year team.  8 wins a year is spot on based on our history. We definitely need to aspire for more and with a new AD and coach we might get it. If changes are not made, were in for more of the same.  

[triangletiger 1,599]

We should be able to, over time, break even against our biggest rivals.  It's not as if UGA has a history any different than ours.  We ought to be able to win as many as we lose against them.  Alabama is in an unprecedented run and it may be too much to expect to break event with them right now (nobody is!), but we should be able to pull one out against them at least 1/3 of the time, I'd think. 

[ArgoEagle 1,788]

What has changed over the years is our expectations. We are no longer satisfied with averaging 8 wins a season and occasionally having a (special season) where we have 10 wins or more. Our present expectations is to contend for the SEC Championship every year and to do that we have to compete with Bama and UGA, and at least split the series with them where we at least win 2 in a row from 1 or the other of them once in a while. Gus is not the man to take us to this level. He has proven it year after year since 2013.

[beaumak 174]

this fails to equate quantitatively the fact that mostly and only in the 2000's that there were 12 regular season games. even though he adds in a tidbit.

so theoretically we should increase that point up one. at least into the "9.somethings". but we are not. even down to 8.2.

gus is 8.75 not counting this year. that includes an outlier of course. on pace for below 9 something this year. 

BUT most importantly our record against our rivals has been amazingly atrocious under him. even we they also flat out suck. 

[AURealist 2,185]

Realistic expectations for Auburn would be:

1) Recruit in the Top 17 and finish ranked in the Top 17.

2) Finish ranked above teams we clearly out-recruit.

3) Be near 50-50 W-L against our main rivals (LSU, UGA, uat).

[ElkRiver 48]

Key Points: 

1) In our current 12 game schedule, 8 wins are not that big of an accomplishment. You can typically get 7 wins without having to beat a ranked team. Btw, what is CGM’s record against ranked opponents?

2) Your record against your main rivals is a big deal. CGM’s record against our top 2 rivals is 2-6 (soon to be 2-8). Without 2 miracle plays, we’d be staring at 0-10.  Dye was 13-11 overall against Georgia and Alabama, but during the heart of his tenure (1982-89), he was 12-4.  Like Stallings said, “you don’t have to beat them every year, but you need to beat them more than they beat you”.

3) when you talk about investment in the program, look at the moves made by the fans. $130 is a lot to pay to watch you get your butt kicked by your in state rival.

[keesler 5,924]

Auburn may historically be an 8 win program going back 4 decades. 

But the problem is that Auburn failed to increase their win totals commiserate with the increased regular season schedule of 12 games /yr.  "IF" AU had bumped up the wins to 9/yr on a consistent basis, then I highly doubt we'd all be so frustrated and disgruntled with the current status quo.

[jmcrosson 203]

My expectations? That Gus be fired. 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

Win a few against your rivals (most important honestly), recruit in the top 20 every year, play for the SEC title every 4-5 years, and beat the teams you should beat - like LSU this year. 

The Georgia game is the real coach killer here. All Gus had to do was win against UGA last year and he would have been on better ground. Not saying he would be safe but he would be on better ground with the fan base. 

 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

9 minutes ago, keesler said:

Auburn may historically be an 8 win program going back 4 decades. 

But the problem is that Auburn failed to increase their win totals commiserate with the increased regular season schedule of 12 games /yr.  "IF" AU had bumped up the wins to 9/yr on a consistent basis, then I highly doubt we'd all be so frustrated and disgruntled with the current status quo.

good point.

[Tiger 8,827]

After the national title in 2010 the program elevated itself to where those yesteryears expectations were no longer going to cut it. When you're bringing in top 10 level talent you expect to finish in the top 10. Prior to Chizik we did not have top 10 talent being funneled into the program. I don't think it's asking too much to expect to finish on par with the talent on the roster.

[gctiger 931]

34 minutes ago, Tiger said:

After the national title in 2010 the program elevated itself to where those yesteryears expectations were no longer going to cut it. When you're bringing in top 10 level talent you expect to finish in the top 10. Prior to Chizik we did not have top 10 talent being funneled into the program. I don't think it's asking too much to expect to finish on par with the talent on the roster.

The problem is that a lot of that talent never makes it to veteran status.  It was reported that 14 players either transferred, quit, or were dismissed since the end of last season.  IMO as long as the attrition rate continues, we will have a "young" team and will rarely match up well with veteran teams such as UGA and bammur.  Couple that with poor coaching and development and you end up about where we are now. 

[Tiger 8,827]

3 minutes ago, gctiger said:

The problem is that a lot of that talent never makes it to veteran status.  It was reported that 14 players either transferred, quit, or were dismissed since the end of last season.  IMO as long as the attrition rate continues, we will have a "young" team and will rarely match up well with veteran teams such as UGA and bammur.  Couple that with poor coaching and development and you end up about where we are now. 

Good point. Does not give him a pass though. He should do a better job of keeping players by way of doing a better job with character assessment in the recruiting process then.

It took Gus a while to see that only looking at a kid's talent with no regard to character or team chemistry isn't the right way to go about it -- Dyer, Duke, Jovon, etc. Lol I can't believe Gus actually took Dyer with him to Arky State after knowing up close and personal all of the BS he was involved in 

[1856 136]

4 hours ago, ArgoEagle said:

What has changed over the years is our expectations. We are no longer satisfied with averaging 8 wins a season and occasionally having a (special season) where we have 10 wins or more. Our present expectations is to contend for the SEC Championship every year and to do that we have to compete with Bama and UGA, and at least split the series with them where we at least win 2 in a row from 1 or the other of them once in a while. Gus is not the man to take us to this level. He has proven it year after year since 2013.

I don't think any AU fan has ever been "satisfied" with an 8 win season...

[gctiger 931]

37 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Good point. Does not give him a pass though. He should do a better job of keeping players by way of doing a better job with character assessment in the recruiting process then.

It took Gus a while to see that only looking at a kid's talent with no regard to character or team chemistry isn't the right way to go about it -- Dyer, Duke, Jovon, etc. Lol I can't believe Gus actually took Dyer with him to Arky State after knowing up close and personal all of the BS he was involved in 

That's my point.  No way in hell was I suggesting giving Gus a pass!   I was merely stating that this trend will continue as long as Gus allows it to continue.  

[Tiger 8,827]

8 wins should be the absolute floor for us -- a program with national title hopes. I mean in rebuilding years we can take 8 wins once in a while, and understandable that sometimes thats how the ball bounces. But the way we recruit we should ALWAYS sweep the Arkys and MS schools and we should be no worse than splitting with Bama, UGA, LSU, TAMU consistently.  Seriously our record against these 4  -- whom recruit on the same level of us -- is inexcusably BAD for a program like ours. Basically with same level of talent we have been largely outclassed, to put it lightly, under the Malzahn regime.

[Tiger 8,827]

24 minutes ago, gctiger said:

That's my point.  No way in hell was I suggesting giving Gus a pass!   I was merely stating that this trend will continue as long as Gus allows it to continue.  

Gotcha sorry for misunderstanding and am out of likes currently 

[keesler 5,924]

1 hour ago, gctiger said:

The problem is that a lot of that talent never makes it to veteran status.  It was reported that 14 players either transferred, quit, or were dismissed since the end of last season.  IMO as long as the attrition rate continues, we will have a "young" team and will rarely match up well with veteran teams such as UGA and bammur.  Couple that with poor coaching and development and you end up about where we are now. 

Watch out!  

I've been told many times that our attrition is normal and comparative to our conference brethren.  Nothing to worry about, nothing is out of the ordinary with our annual exodus of talent.  All is well, we are just like everybody else.

(sorry can't find the sarcasm font)