Lunardi- this doesn't make sense

[au701948 998]

The key is win Now!

[81spacetiger 157]

I always thought of it this way:

I could see how the movement might have moved us from "16" to "17" in Joe's eye's.  That could move us from the #4 team as a 4th seed to the #1 team as a 5th seed. 

I think our O/D NET rankings, etc are very good and have helped us get to a good AP/coaches poll ranking of 13/14.  If the selection committee holds a similar view, that would have us as a "4.1 or 4.2" seeding meaning we're at the top of the #4 seeds.  

If this is true, the SEC tourney results for us could make an important difference because we could jump from a "4.1" to a "3.4" meaning we would be the 4th team in the 3rd seeding bracket.  We still need a little help.  Getting to a 3rd seed would be important because we would get to the sweet 16 round, we would be facing a #2 seed within a bracket (at worst).  If we stay at a #4 seed, we would be facing off a #1 seed (worse case).  I would want to face a #2 seed vs #1 unless it was Purdue.  

We have to beat Ga this sat and hope we get on the top 4 line with a double bye in the SEC tournament; then, go on to win it all so we can hang a banner.  We are improving some minor adjustments coming out.  We make out FT's (good %) and are hitting our 3's at a good clip (hope it can stay consistent) and the D is present.  When we're on, he are a tough outing. When we are not, I think it still takes a good team to beat us.  Fingers crossed.

War Eagle.  

 

Edited March 8 by 81spacetiger

[Viper 3,132]

3 hours ago, arktiger1975 said:

I think we have a slim chance of getting to a #3, if we keep winning and get some help.

With one regular season game remaining for most everyone, not possible. Even if we win the SEC tourney, not possible. 

[AU Is Gold 410]

14 minutes ago, Viper said:

With one regular season game remaining for most everyone, not possible. Even if we win the SEC tourney, not possible. 

We would 100% get a 3 seed if we won the tourney.

[e808 3,026]

2 minutes ago, AU Is Gold said:

We would 100% get a 3 seed if we won the tourney.

Not sure because the brackets are pretty much done before the SEC championship game has completed. Maybe if they are on the fence

[AU Is Gold 410]

They would reward a team for beating Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Kentucky in a row. 

[e808 3,026]

24 minutes ago, AU Is Gold said:

They would reward a team for beating Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Kentucky in a row. 

Remember the final 4 team didn’t move off the 5 line and I believe didn’t have a double bye

[Viper 3,132]

39 minutes ago, AU Is Gold said:

We would 100% get a 3 seed if we won the tourney.

How did that work out in 2019?

[AU Is Gold 410]

4 minutes ago, e808 said:

Remember the final 4 team didn’t move off the 5 line and I believe didn’t have a double bye

Yeah we were also 18 in the NET and the quality of opponents were weaker in that sec tournament. The potential of beating South Carolina/Florida, Alabama/Kentucky, and Tennessee would put us at a 3 seed. 

[AU Is Gold 410]

3 minutes ago, Viper said:

How did that work out in 2019?

Circumstances are different. 

[arktiger1975 517]

1 hour ago, Viper said:

With one regular season game remaining for most everyone, not possible. Even if we win the SEC tourney, not possible. 

Why not? What if some of the currently projected 3's get blown out tomorrow? 

[e808 3,026]

1 hour ago, AU Is Gold said:

Yeah we were also 18 in the NET and the quality of opponents were weaker in that sec tournament. The potential of beating South Carolina/Florida, Alabama/Kentucky, and Tennessee would put us at a 3 seed. 

I would argue that the out of conference teams were much stronger than this years teams. IMO thats why Alabama is so high even with all the losses. If they win out let’s set what happens. I would think the top one through four seeds are set for each region unless something catastrophic happens

[phillyeagle 130]

Where is this "we can't get better than a 4 seed" stuff coming from? A bunch of media people who have no control over the situation? At #6 in the NET, there's justification for us to be a 2 seed!

 

I have no idea what's going to happen but I'm not gonna concede that we're not justifiably a 3 or even a 2 seed. We've got a lot of positives on our resume, one of only 5 teams with a top 20 offense and defense, and only 3 teams with a top 15 offense and defense. Very fun to watch too!

[GTNupe11 2,034]

We are currently 1-7 in Quad 1 wins. That has done us no favors and its unfortunate because our OOC record is great, those teams just ended up sucking. We know this team could make an argument for a 3 seed but let's be honest, it just won't be given to us, even if we win the SEC tournament. Especially with the media darlings ahead of us: Kansas, Duke, Baylor, etc. I think we end up being a 4. 

[GwillMac6 20,678]

3 hours ago, GTNupe11 said:

We are currently 1-7 in Quad 1 wins. That has done us no favors and its unfortunate because our OOC record is great, those teams just ended up sucking. We know this team could make an argument for a 3 seed but let's be honest, it just won't be given to us, even if we win the SEC tournament. Especially with the media darlings ahead of us: Kansas, Duke, Baylor, etc. I think we end up being a 4. 

Got some bad breaks in terms of getting 2 more Quad 1 wins. Mississippi State at home and Ole Miss win on the road are only a few spots away from both being Quad 1 wins. And South Carolina’s metrics are astonishing with how bad they are. Based on their record alone sand who they have beaten it’s ridiculous that won’t be a quad 1 win.

[BizEagle 79]

13 hours ago, e808 said:

Remember the final 4 team didn’t move off the 5 line and I believe didn’t have a double bye

That team beat several blue blood teams on the way to the final 4.  We had the toughest draw I every can recall.  No doubt we would have won the whole NCAA if a competent official had made that double dribble call or if Chuma wasn't injured.  Eliminate one of a few exceptionally bad breaks and AU would have been hanging the banner in Neville Arena.   Would love to get there again.

I love this year's team but we have to get more consistent shooting or rebound a bit better to get to the final 4.  This team doesn't have a stud shooter like UT has with Knecht and UK has with Dillingham.  So, we need a couple of players to step up to another level.

[e808 3,026]

7 minutes ago, BizEagle said:

That team beat several blue blood teams on the way to the final 4.  We had the toughest draw I every can recall.  No doubt we would have won the whole NCAA if a competent official had made that double dribble call or if Chuma wasn't injured.  Eliminate one of a few exceptionally bad breaks and AU would have been hanging the banner in Neville Arena.   Would love to get there again.

I love this year's team but we have to get more consistent shooting or rebound a bit better to get to the final 4.  This team doesn't have a stud shooter like UT has with Knecht and UK has with Dillingham.  So, we need a couple of players to step up to another level.

I believe the two elephants in the room are three point shooting. I think make between 8-10 and Auburn is in a good spot. The other issue is guard play which has plagued the team for the last few years 

[GTNupe11 2,034]

All I know is, I'm ready for March Madness! Best time of the year!

[Viper 3,132]

16 hours ago, AU Is Gold said:

We would 100% get a 3 seed if we won the tourney.

Disagreed. We won it in 2019 and did not move up a bit. 

[Viper 3,132]

15 hours ago, AU Is Gold said:

Circumstances are different. 

How so? We beat TN in the finals that season and did not move up a bit.

[Viper 3,132]

14 hours ago, arktiger1975 said:

Why not? What if some of the currently projected 3's get blown out tomorrow? 

It’s one game. We got blown out at FL and it did not dramatically effect our standing as a 4/5 seed.

[ArgoEagle 1,788]

14 hours ago, e808 said:

I would argue that the out of conference teams were much stronger than this years teams. IMO thats why Alabama is so high even with all the losses. If they win out let’s set what happens. I would think the top one through four seeds are set for each region unless something catastrophic happens

I just strongly believe Bama is over rated bc of their high scoring ability.  Their whole rate of success depends on whether or not they get wide open looks at 3's & (IF) they are hitting those 3's.

Bruce & Barnes both figured this out & ran defenses that (limited) Bama's 3 point attempts & makes & therefore you saw a low scoring performance in those games from Bama.

In other words both of us cut off their fuel source.   When other coaches see this & have the horses to stop it, their success rate goes way down.

I'm not worried about them.

[e808 3,026]

14 minutes ago, ArgoEagle said:

I just strongly believe Bama is over rated bc of their high scoring ability.  Their whole rate of success depends on whether or not they get wide open looks at 3's & (IF) they are hitting those 3's.

Bruce & Barnes both figured this out & ran defenses that (limited) Bama's 3 point attempts & makes & therefore you saw a low scoring performance in those games from Bama.

In other words both of us cut off their fuel source.   When other coaches see this & have the horses to stop it, their success rate goes way down.

I'm not worried about them.

Although Auburn beat them by double digits at home Sears almost went for 30. I am just concerned so far for Auburn it’s either really good or really bad outside of maybe Tennessee . All the teams that beat Auburn the common denominator is better guards.

[arktiger1975 517]

23 minutes ago, ArgoEagle said:

I just strongly believe Bama is over rated bc of their high scoring ability.  Their whole rate of success depends on whether or not they get wide open looks at 3's & (IF) they are hitting those 3's.

Bruce & Barnes both figured this out & ran defenses that (limited) Bama's 3 point attempts & makes & therefore you saw a low scoring performance in those games from Bama.

In other words both of us cut off their fuel source.   When other coaches see this & have the horses to stop it, their success rate goes way down.

I'm not worried about them.

Oats is a math guy. They basically gamed the kenPom and NET by scheduling some elite teams (but didn't beat any of them), and running up the score vs bad teams. Not blaming them, but they fooled a lot of people into thinking they are a lot better than they actually are. They are nowhere near as good as they were last year.

[ArgoEagle 1,788]

25 minutes ago, e808 said:

Although Auburn beat them by double digits at home Sears almost went for 30. I am just concerned so far for Auburn it’s either really good or really bad outside of maybe Tennessee . All the teams that beat Auburn the common denominator is better guards.

Yeah, I was specifically talking about how to beat Bama.  They are a different animal than other teams.

And yes, we have suffered from guard deficiency since 2019.

The slight difference this year is this;  Our guards are not as good as the upper tier teams' guards most of the time;  BUT with the addition of CBM & Chaney this year who are both around 6'7" combined with our 3 big men we already had; 4 of the 5 of them can score and all 5 of them play way better than average defense so we have a distinct advantage over a bunch of tier 1 teams bc our bigs overcompensate for the guards deficiencies.   If our guards don't turn the ball over, and contribute just between 3-5 3's per game, and our bigs are not just ice cold from the floor like they were against MSU (away) & UF, then we have a great chance of winning at least a couple of games in any tournament.