Lunardi- this doesn't make sense

[Viper 3,132]

14 hours ago, phillyeagle said:

Where is this "we can't get better than a 4 seed" stuff coming from?

History

[Viper 3,132]

3 hours ago, e808 said:

three point shooting. I think make between 8-10 and Auburn is in a good spot.

Yup. I said this back in December. When our team hits their 3s (40%), we’re a tough out. 

bammer has to hit their average of eleven 3s to win big games due to their defensive deficiencies. 

AU only needs eight 3s to beat anyone due to our defensive efficiency.

[AU Is Gold 410]

2 hours ago, Viper said:

How so? We beat TN in the finals that season and did not move up a bit.

If we win 4 in a row, you'll see. 

[Viper 3,132]

5 minutes ago, AU Is Gold said:

If we win 4 in a row, you'll see. 

[Tiger 8,826]

If our tournament ended Saturday we'd probably increase the chances of the SECT results meaning anything in regards to seeding

[KillenTime 127]

You guys are all assuming you know where we are today.  You don't, I don't.  Joe sure as hell doesn't.  We may already be a 3 in the committee's eyes.  We may be a 5 in their eyes.  No way to know for sure.  We have been a 6 and moved to the 5 the year we went to the final four.  We do know the committee chairman in the past has said "we had to make some last minute adjustments because team X made it to the finals of the Big 10 tournament unexpectedly and that impacted their record over their last 10 games enough to move them up".   You guys have heard scenarios like that right?  Or do you even listen or keep up with it closely?  It appears some of you don't have a clue what you are talking about.  I think being number 6 or 7 in the Net rankings may have us at a 3 right now.  Make it to the finals and we hold on to the 3.  Go home early and drop to a 4 or possibly 5.   Who knows?   

[GTNupe11 2,034]

46 minutes ago, KillenTime said:

You guys are all assuming you know where we are today.  You don't, I don't.  Joe sure as hell doesn't.  We may already be a 3 in the committee's eyes.  We may be a 5 in their eyes.  No way to know for sure.  We have been a 6 and moved to the 5 the year we went to the final four.  We do know the committee chairman in the past has said "we had to make some last minute adjustments because team X made it to the finals of the Big 10 tournament unexpectedly and that impacted their record over their last 10 games enough to move them up".   You guys have heard scenarios like that right?  Or do you even listen or keep up with it closely?  It appears some of you don't have a clue what you are talking about.  I think being number 6 or 7 in the Net rankings may have us at a 3 right now.  Make it to the finals and we hold on to the 3.  Go home early and drop to a 4 or possibly 5.   Who knows?   

Not to be funny, but you too, right? I mean, just based on what you said after that sentence. 😂 I think history has shown where a team is likely to be seeded. I don't think it's rocket science honestly. Hell, we got bounced early from the SEC tournament the year we had Jabari/Walker and folks were thinking we'd drop low because of it. It ended up not mattering really So, I don't think it's a matter of folks not having a clue of what they're talking about, it's mostly what does the evidence of how this usually works show, and sometimes the eye test/gut matters more than computers. I mean I'd love to be a 3 seed, that would be awesome. But I don't see it based on where other teams are currently now WITH their body of work compared to ours. 

[arktiger1975 518]

If we win tomorrow, and win on Friday in the SEC tournament, we have a SHOT at a 3 seed. Anything less, we are a 4 or a 5. I think it's that simple.

[Viper 3,132]

2 hours ago, KillenTime said:

It appears some of you don't have a clue what you are talking about.

[Viper 3,132]

1 hour ago, arktiger1975 said:

If we win tomorrow, and win on Friday in the SEC tournament, we have a SHOT at a 3 seed.

[Viper 3,132]

17 hours ago, GTNupe11 said:

We are currently 1-7 in Quad 1 wins

And the lone Quad 1 win was at home, over a team who has lost 3 of their last 4 games.

[arktiger1975 518]

29 minutes ago, Viper said:

And a pretty strong one at that. But still have lots of work to do.

[madkat7 233]

I DO NOT UNDERSTAND!

I've read Quad 1 wins are as follows: Win at home against top 25 team, Neutral site win against top 50 team, Road win vs top 75 team. How is it we only have 1 considerd a quad 1 win? What am I missing? Home wins against S. Carolina and Bama should be at least 2.

Edited March 9 by madkat7

[81spacetiger 157]

20 hours ago, GTNupe11 said:

We are currently 1-7 in Quad 1 wins. That has done us no favors and its unfortunate because our OOC record is great, those teams just ended up sucking. We know this team could make an argument for a 3 seed but let's be honest, it just won't be given to us, even if we win the SEC tournament. Especially with the media darlings ahead of us: Kansas, Duke, Baylor, etc. I think we end up being a 4. 

^ This ^

When I look at the top seeded teams, the 1-7 performance in Quad 1 is our Achillies heal.   I think we are a lock for a 4th seed because we have strong double digit wins and all of our loses are close (except 2).  I also feel. depending on some luck in the next 7 days, a possibility of a lower tiered 3 seed could await us. 

Edited March 9 by 81spacetiger

[Viper 3,132]

3 hours ago, arktiger1975 said:

And a pretty strong one at that. But still have lots of work to do.

Zero possibility we get a 3-seed with just two more wins. 

[81spacetiger 157]

4 minutes ago, Viper said:

Zero possibility we get a 3-seed with just two more wins. 

Never say never.  In the latest Lunardi bracketing we look like this:

 

 

We have an up arrow after us, so we might be "4.1", the top 4th seed.  I think we have to get to the SEC CC game + have some others around us lose and we might make the 3 line at "3.4".

[Viper 3,132]

13 minutes ago, 81spacetiger said:

Never say never.  In the latest Lunardi bracketing we look like this:

 

 

We have an up arrow after us, so we might be "4.1", the top 4th seed.  I think we have to get to the SEC CC game + have some others around us lose and we might make the 3 line at "3.4".

The up arrow simply means we just leaped from a strong 5-seed to a weak 4-seed, so that likely equals 4.4.

We’re favored to beat GA at home and minus a matchup v UK, we’ll be favored in our Friday game. Winning two more games we’re favored in will not vault us from a 4.4 to a 3.4.

[81spacetiger 157]

2 hours ago, Viper said:

The up arrow simply means we just leaped from a strong 5-seed to a weak 4-seed, so that likely equals 4.4.

We’re favored to beat GA at home and minus a matchup v UK, we’ll be favored in our Friday game. Winning two more games we’re favored in will not vault us from a 4.4 to a 3.4.

 I thought we were a 4 seed before with no arrow.

Also, you keep citing what Auburn might do; movement this late is going to happen based on what we do + what happens around us.  This means within the SEC and the country (specifically watch what the #3 and #4 seeds do this sat and the first rounds of their respective conference.  Prime example is UK as a #4 seed.  They play @ UT tomorrow.  If they lose and exit early in the SEC CC I would think they do not stay a 4 seed.  #3 Kansas has a tough last game @ #1 Houston.  Drop that game and exit early in their CC bracket and they may fall from the 3 line.

 We'll just hold our water and take care of our tasks and see where we end up.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,669]

5 hours ago, madkat7 said:

I DO NOT UNDERSTAND!

I've read Quad 1 wins are as follows: Win at home against top 25 team, Neutral site win against top 50 team, Road win vs top 75 team. How is it we only have 1 considerd a quad 1 win? What am I missing? Home wins against S. Carolina and Bama should be at least 2.

I don’t know if anyone replied to this saying this already, but it’s not based on when you played them, but rather where they’re currently at. SCar wasn’t even top 25 when we played them iirc, I believe they were 39th? 
 

That fluidity has also benefitted us recently btw. App St has recently moved back into being a Q1 loss, instead of a Q2 loss. We’re an atrocity in Q1 games, but we are undefeated in Q2-4 and have to have a killer point differential with how big our wins have been by…prob doing a lot of heavy lifting for our metrics at this point 

Edited March 9 by Dual-Threat Rigby

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,669]

https://www.al.com/auburnbasketball/2024/03/what-are-the-pros-and-cons-of-auburns-march-madness-resume.html
 

Good quick read. We basically have the worst Q1 record of any tourney team, and our closest next win to a Q1 is 39th, 9 spots out of 30th. If we’re at a point where Creighton, Kansas, Baylor and Marq are the 3 seed, I don’t even see why we could get considered for that seed line unless we completely won out in the conference. I think we’re locked into a double bye spot with a win today, so you can get yourself 3 matchups with likely all 3 being Q2 or better. 
 

I’d rather have the tourney trophy even if it came against weak competition, but if you really value the remote 3rd seed possibility, we probably need something like Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky as the 3. Some of those B12 teams seeded around us can probably also field 3 straight Q1 opportunities, but I don’t think anyone else can.

Edit: I was thinking Q1 as the top 30 teams that are used for home games, not the top 50 that’s used for neutral. Disregard that point 

Edited March 9 by Dual-Threat Rigby

[Viper 3,132]

11 hours ago, 81spacetiger said:

I thought we were a 4 seed before with no arrow.

Arrow means you just moved up or down one ranking.

11 hours ago, 81spacetiger said:

Also, you keep citing what Auburn might do; movement this late is going to happen based on what we do + what happens around us.  This means within the SEC and the country (specifically watch what the #3 and #4 seeds do this sat and the first rounds of their respective conference.  Prime example is UK as a #4 seed.  They play @ UT tomorrow.  If they lose and exit early in the SEC CC I would think they do not stay a 4 seed.  #3 Kansas has a tough last game @ #1 Houston.  Drop that game and exit early in their CC bracket and they may fall from the 3 line.

You're equating last game losses in bball (to the committee) to football (rankings). Football rankings are impulse, what have you done for me lately, changes. bball seedings by the committee have always been total bodies of work.

Also the two games you referenced are not seeding crashers. Losing to TN and Houston (both likely 1-seeds) are not frowned upon in bball like they are in football. In fact, if the losses are close, the losers (UK and Kansas in those scenarios) are given a fair amount of respect for playing tough opponents well.

[81spacetiger 157]

11 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I’d rather have the tourney trophy even if it came against weak competition, but if you really value the remote 3rd seed possibility, we probably need something like Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky as the 3. Some of those B12 teams seeded around us can probably also field 3 straight Q1 opportunities, but I don’t think anyone else can.

Agree

[NCAubs 377]

1 hour ago, Viper said:

Arrow means you just moved up or down one ranking.

You're equating last game losses in bball (to the committee) to football (rankings). Football rankings are impulse, what have you done for me lately, changes. bball seedings by the committee have always been total bodies of work.

Also the two games you referenced are not seeding crashers. Losing to TN and Houston (both likely 1-seeds) are not frowned upon in bball like they are in football. In fact, if the losses are close, the losers (UK and Kansas in those scenarios) are given a fair amount of respect for playing tough opponents well.

The old “last ten games” doesn’t even apply anymore.   It is truly a body of work that they look at for seeding. 

[Viper 3,132]

1 hour ago, NCAubs said:

The old “last ten games” doesn’t even apply anymore.   It is truly a body of work that they look at for seeding. 

Yup. Exactly this. 

[KillenTime 127]

On 3/8/2024 at 6:03 PM, madkat7 said:

I DO NOT UNDERSTAND!

I've read Quad 1 wins are as follows: Win at home against top 25 team, Neutral site win against top 50 team, Road win vs top 75 team. How is it we only have 1 considerd a quad 1 win? What am I missing? Home wins against S. Carolina and Bama should be at least 2.

Win at home vs. top 30, neutral site vs. top 50 and road win vs. top 75 in the NET rankings not the AP poll.  South Carolina is around 45 or so in the NET.