The Red Wave (Tsunami) in two weeks

[SLAG-91 1,483]

Biggest takeaway to me from tonight is contrasting Trump-endorsed candidates with DeSantis' results in Florida tonight, really the entire Florida Republican party. Florida doesn't look like a swing state at this point. It has become apparent that DeSantis ought to be the Republican nominee in '24.

Democrats should be praying to their deity of choice that Trump is the Republican candidate in two years, and if he is, team Red would deserve whatever fate befalls it.

Going to have to sign off shortly...should be a lot of interesting reading tomorrow.

[TexasTiger 12,897]

1 minute ago, SLAG-91 said:

Biggest takeaway to me from tonight is contrasting Trump-endorsed candidates with DeSantis' results in Florida tonight, really the entire Florida Republican party. Florida doesn't look like a swing state at this point. It has become apparent that DeSantis ought to be the Republican nominee in '24.

Democrats should be praying to their deity of choice that Trump is the Republican candidate in two years, and if he is, team Red would deserve whatever fate befalls it.

Going to have to sign off shortly...should be a lot of interesting reading tomorrow.

DeSantis is scared of Trump.

[AUDub 11,149]

1 minute ago, TexasTiger said:

DeSantis is scared of Trump.

They're all scared of him. The cult of personality is strong. 

[AUDub 11,149]

Oh God please let Boebert get upset tonight. 

[AUDub 11,149]

Bam. Fetterman beats Oz's carpetbagging ass. 

[TexasTiger 12,897]

1 hour ago, AUDub said:

They're all scared of him. The cult of personality is strong. 

DeSantis is also a Wannabe Alpha.

[Elephant Tipper 430]

More like a red algae wave

[Elephant Tipper 430]

On 10/25/2022 at 9:56 AM, aubiefifty said:

most of germany bought into stupidity and look what happened. the only difference i can see is the nazi's would have killed hershel while the repubs use his retardedness to use him. that is how low they have gotten coffee.

Is there a Mr. Biden here ?  Biden ?  What about a Mr. Fetterman ?  Fetterman ?  Your brain scans don't look so good sirs.  We'll have to amputate.

[aubiefifty 16,798]

2 minutes ago, Elephant Tipper said:

Is there a Mr. Biden here ?  Biden ?  What about a Mr. Fetterman ?  Fetterman ?  Your brain scans don't look so good sirs.  We'll have to amputate.

i can let you talk to dr oz.......here is over here raking my leaves. being a republican i sure hope he does not fall out of that tree.

[I_M4_AU 7,848]

Well, that sucked.

[AUDub 11,149]

31 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Well, that sucked.

Polling across the rust belt was poor again, this time favoring the Ds. 

[autigeremt 6,635]

ripples......in a 2mph breeze. Still the same ole divided nation. 

[AUDub 11,149]

These people are so high on their own supply they've somehow convinced themselves Fettermen is in a literal coma. 

 

Edited November 9, 2022 by AUDub

[TitanTiger 20,483]

I hope the lesson of this "red wave" petering out that Republicans (both in the leadership and the rank and file voters) is:

1.  Quality of candidates matters.  Stop sending election deniers, COVID anti-vaxxers, folks who give credence to conspiracy theories and other assorted idiots like these through to the general elections.

2.  Stop trusting Trump's endorsements and instincts as to who to back.  It's a spin at the roulette wheel at best.  It's past time to move on from Trump.

And to the segment of Republican voters who are conservative Christians - go back to what you believed in the 90s when Bill Clinton was in office and you declared that personal moral character was of top-tier importance when electing leaders.  You ditched that when the moral blackhole candidate was "your guy" and you regurgitated all the excuses Democrats used to continue backing a womanizing, sexual assaulting, adulterer because he was popular and it gave access to power.  This is not the moral calculus we are to use.  

[shabby 1,958]

Florida is gone for Democrats. It has progressively become older and more conservative. Republican registration has increased and the Cuban community has swung right. 

 

Democrats focus should now be in the Rustbelt, Sunbelt and North Carolina. That is their pathway to remaining in power. 

The Georgia runoff will only be interesting if Cortez Masto loses. If so Georgia will become the battle for a 50-50 senate. If Mastro wins (which I think she will) Walker voters in Georgia will likely stay home rather than support a candidate they truly aren't full of love for in election where the stakes aren't control of the senate. 

The big winner tonight is polling. Senate polls that weren't conducted by partisan pollsters were pretty much dead on. 

The other Big winner is Biden. He was not a drain on the ticket which is usually what happens during a midterm. 

Another Big winner: Desantis- He will probably run now and be seen as the person that can move past Trump (ironic as the two are virtually the same person)

The Big Loser tonight (Trump)- His relevancy will be diminished

[Leftfield 2,601]

5 minutes ago, shabby said:

Florida is gone for Democrats. It has progressively become older and more conservative. Republican registration has increased and the Cuban community has swung right. 

 

Democrats focus should now be in the Rustbelt, Sunbelt and North Carolina. That is their pathway to remaining in power. 

The Georgia runoff will only be interesting if Cortez Masto loses. If so Georgia will become the battle for a 50-50 senate. If Mastro wins (which I think she will) Walker voters in Georgia will likely stay home rather than support a candidate they truly aren't full of love for in election where the stakes aren't control of the senate. 

The big winner tonight is polling. Senate polls that weren't conducted by partisan pollsters were pretty much dead on. 

The other Big winner is Biden. He was not a drain on the ticket which is usually what happens during a midterm. 

Another Big winner: Desantis- He will probably run now and be seen as the person that can move past Trump (ironic as the two are virtually the same person)

The Big Loser tonight (Trump)- His relevancy will be diminished

Only part I disagree with is Biden not being a drain. I don't think it was necessarily severe, but I think it was still a lesser-of-two-evils that was more afraid of what the Republican Party has become. Another candidate needs to emerge for the Democrats, because I think it would be a mistake for Biden to be the nominee again unless there just isn't any other realistic shot.

[AUDub 11,149]

49 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

I hope the lesson of this "red wave" petering out that Republicans (both in the leadership and the rank and file voters) is:

1.  Quality of candidates matters.  Stop sending election deniers, COVID anti-vaxxers, folks who give credence to conspiracy theories and other assorted idiots like these through to the general elections.

2.  Stop trusting Trump's endorsements and instincts as to who to back.  It's a spin at the roulette wheel at best.  It's past time to move on from Trump.

And to the segment of Republican voters who are conservative Christians - go back to what you believed in the 90s when Bill Clinton was in office and you declared that personal moral character was of top-tier importance when electing leaders.  You ditched that when the moral blackhole candidate was "your guy" and you regurgitated all the excuses Democrats used to continue backing a womanizing, sexual assaulting, adulterer because he was popular and it gave access to power.  This is not the moral calculus we are to use.  

You know Dobbs played a role.

[icanthearyou 4,463]

Could be a signal that it is time for the rise of the Independent candidate and, the independent voter.

[CoffeeTiger 5,109]

6 minutes ago, AUDub said:

You know Dobbs played a role.

 

They should take lessons from Florida Republican's dominate performance. If you HAVE to have some sort of abortion law in place then a 15-20 week ban, not outright bans, are the winning strategy for Conservatives. 

[shabby 1,958]

13 minutes ago, Leftfield said:

Only part I disagree with is Biden not being a drain. I don't think it was necessarily severe, but I think it was still a lesser-of-two-evils that was more afraid of what the Republican Party has become. Another candidate needs to emerge for the Democrats, because I think it would be a mistake for Biden to be the nominee again unless there just isn't any other realistic shot.

The reason I stated that is because traditionally the president's policies cause a significant loss. Of significance, exit polls indicate that independents actually voted for the democrat by 2 percentage points. That is virtually unheard of in midterms. The president's party does not win independent voters. Biden get's credit for giving democrats something to run on. Infrastructure, chips bill, student loan forgiveness ect. It's not that Biden wasn't a drain. Its the limited amount of impact that Biden had that makes him a winner. 

He also gets credit for ignoring calls to change messaging to one focused on the economy. In the end, voters were turned off by the radicalization of republicans running and by emphasizing the threat posed to democracy, Biden captured many independent's attention.

 

[TitanTiger 20,483]

26 minutes ago, AUDub said:

You know Dobbs played a role.

Probably in some races.  But it certainly wasn't a massive boost for Dems.  Might have staved off a few losses in some areas of the country though.

Edited to add:  And I think some of the reason it wasn't a "tidal wave" type of thing for Dems is that the Democratic party's response hasn't hit on where most people are either.  While some of the red state abortion bans have been way too restrictive in the view of many, the loudest voices on the Left have responded by pushing for abortion on demand at any stage of pregnancy like California did.  The polls seem to indicate that most folks are very uncomfortable with that as well.  So in a situation where the play would have been to find the "reasonable" ground to occupy, they just responded with more "extremism," just in the other direction.  So in many races it ended up being a wash.

[TexasTiger 12,897]

40 minutes ago, shabby said:

Florida is gone for Democrats. It has progressively become older and more conservative. Republican registration has increased and the Cuban community has swung right. 

 

Democrats focus should now be in the Rustbelt, Sunbelt and North Carolina. That is their pathway to remaining in power. 

The Georgia runoff will only be interesting if Cortez Masto loses. If so Georgia will become the battle for a 50-50 senate. If Mastro wins (which I think she will) Walker voters in Georgia will likely stay home rather than support a candidate they truly aren't full of love for in election where the stakes aren't control of the senate. 

The big winner tonight is polling. Senate polls that weren't conducted by partisan pollsters were pretty much dead on. 

The other Big winner is Biden. He was not a drain on the ticket which is usually what happens during a midterm. 

Another Big winner: Desantis- He will probably run now and be seen as the person that can move past Trump (ironic as the two are virtually the same person)

The Big Loser tonight (Trump)- His relevancy will be diminished

Can we let folks travel to Cuba now without ridiculous restrictions instead of appeasing a strident special interest group that’s decidedly partisan anyway? C’mon Joe! 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

26 minutes ago, AUDub said:

You know Dobbs played a role.

It played a massive role.  Voter turnout from 18-29 was through the roof and broke heavily for Dems (+29).  Most of that is attributed to Dobbs.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

47 minutes ago, shabby said:

Another Big winner: Desantis- He will probably run now and be seen as the person that can move past Trump (ironic as the two are virtually the same person)

The Big Loser tonight (Trump)- His relevancy will be diminished

I'm not convinced DeSantis plays well outside of Florida.  We have to start understanding that the dynamics of Florida are unique.

What I see is that traditional candidates like Kemp in Georgia stand the best chance for Rs.  He outperformed Walker by 7 points.

For Dems, the message is invest in PA, WI, MI, MN, NC, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.  That's the pathway to 270 in 2024.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Brad_ATX

[TexasTiger 12,897]

2 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

I'm not convinced DeSantis plays well outside of Florida.  We have to start understanding that the dynamics of Florida are unique.

What I see is that traditional candidates like Kemp in Georgia stand the best chance for Rs.  He outperformed Walker by 7 points.

For Dems, the message is invest in PA, WI, MI, MN, NC, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.  That's the pathway to 270 in 2024.

He’s not likeable.