The Harsin Effect

[ScotsAU 1,343]

Definition: A situation in which, after a period of repetitive disappointment, fans shift from expectation positivity (assuming best case scenario) to expectation negativity (assuming the worst case scenario)

I think this fanbase has come down with it. On the score prediction thread, folks are very negative, assuming we’re going to roll over against A&M. That never would’ve happened pre-Harsin. 
 

The psychologist in me wants to discuss. What’s going on with folks here lately? Where’s the enthusiasm?

Edited September 19, 2023 by ScotsAU

[shabby 1,958]

I feel its pretty realistic and will be in line with the odds. We all know a win is possible and the tram has potential. We wont expect big wins until we see consistency with offensive producrion. Thats gonna take sunstantial improvement with our rum blockinh which is why we have so many drives stall trying to push it in from inside the 5 yard line. 

[AUGoo 2,666]

You're not wrong.  

Realistically we can all see the difference in talent going into this, and can't gain much confidence in the O performance this year.   I hope and dream we are going to pull off the upset.  Would love a great game and would settle for a moral victory that would enhancer my hope of future improvements.

[auburnatl1 5,224]

Having unrealistic expectations is dangerous for the staff and recruiting. If the next 3 games goes as Vegas will predict, and we lose our minds, that’s not going to be in au’s best interests. I’m prepared for anything.

[wareagle7298 126]

My Lord, Auburn fans have been living the Harsin effect as long as I can remember.  And that is no Mandela effect...

[e808 3,028]

38 minutes ago, ScotsAU said:

Definition: A situation in which, after a period of repetitive disappointment, fans shift from expectation positivity (assuming best case scenario) to expectation negativity (assuming the worst case scenario)

I think this fanbase has come down with it. On the score prediction thread, folks are very negative, assuming we’re going to roll over against A&M. That never would’ve happened pre-Harsin. 
 

The psychologist in me wants to discuss. What’s going on with folks here lately? Where’s the enthusiasm?

Outside of the thrashing when Manziel was there these games have been pretty tight. Even the last time at College Station with such a talent disparity it was a close game until the turnovers. The thing for me is Auburn cleaning up the turnovers and penalties. I think some want to temper expectations but the SEC isn’t that strong this year IMO. Just need to play sound football and see what happens

[passthebiscuits 6,884]

I think Auburn fans have always been realistic, unlike our statesmen to the north. CAN we win? Sure! But we honestly see our trend and the talent disparity on the road and understand that it’s quite the uphill battle. You can hear it in CHF’s voice too. We are probably two or three years removed from where we expect to win games like this. 
 

Honestly, I think if any Harsin effect, is that some people were unable to see how far our program had fallen in last 2-3 years with Gus and the 1.5 years with Harsin. 

[bigbird 60,580]

3 minutes ago, passthebiscuits said:

I think Auburn fans have always been realistic, unlike our statesmen to the north. CAN we win? Sure! But we honestly see our trend and the talent disparity on the road and understand that it’s quite the uphill battle. You can hear it in CHF’s voice too. We are probably two or three years removed from where we expect to win games like this. 
 

Honestly, I think if any Harsin effect, is that some people were unable to see how far our program had fallen in last 2-3 years with Gus and the 1.5 years with Harsin. 

I was gonna say that started around 2016, got teased in '17, and it really picked up steam around 2018

[AUINSY 2,228]

significant injuries combined with turnovers, a new staff, significant amount of portal players, and a lack of offensive identity means a lot of change in a short time, lack of consistency, and no reason to think we'll beat teams that have less of these things. It doesn't mean we can't/won't fight nor play well, but steamrolling lesser competition isn't a thing of the Auburn football present. That, and the entire SEC, along with all of college football is very volatile this season.

[WarrrEagleHey 268]

I think for me, I let myself get unrealistically hyped with all the positives after hiring CHF. I think I expected some kind of miracle turn around, and the last few games have brought me back to reality. CHF may be a great coach, but he can only work with what he's got, and it will take time. I'm unsure what to think about the state of our offense...I definitely was expecting that Malik Willis magic, and did not think our offense would look so poorly called and executed. So, I came out of the gate game 1 ready to shock a lot of people but trying to be a bit more balanced in what to hope for at this  point. 

Edited September 19, 2023 by WarrrEagleHey

[icanthearyou 4,464]

1 hour ago, ScotsAU said:

The psychologist in me wants to discuss. What’s going on with folks here lately? Where’s the enthusiasm?

I don't believe there is a lack of enthusiasm.  I think we are watching college football change quickly and dramatically and, it is difficult to fully understand the ultimate outcome.

It is very interesting though.  At one time, my interest was strictly the competition on the field.  Now, the competition of fundraising, recruiting, facilities, promotion, image, all seem as much or, more important.  Maybe it always that way and, my age has changed my perception?  Maybe the financialization of college football, amateur athletics in general, is not a good?  I know I do not like what we have done to youth athletics.  Growing up, we played for fun.  Now, I'm not sure what it is all about.   

[SaltyTiger 7,898]

13 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

I don't believe there is a lack of enthusiasm.  I think we are watching college football change quickly and dramatically and, it is difficult to fully understand the ultimate outcome.

It is very interesting though.  At one time, my interest was strictly the competition on the field.  Now, the competition of fundraising, recruiting, facilities, promotion, image, all seem as much or, more important.  Maybe it always that way and, my age has changed my perception?  Maybe the financialization of college football, amateur athletics in general, is not a good?  I know I do not like what we have done to youth athletics.  Growing up, we played for fun.  Now, I'm not sure what it is all about.   

You are correct on several points. There has always been the “off the field game” but did not remotely compare to what we see today. Hated to see what travel baseball did to Little League and Dixie Youth years ago. 

[BJCrawford 1,568]

There’s an article on Al.com that indicates A & M with 14 5 stars and us zero on the field Saturday. Freeze, nor the mighty Nick Saban, could likely pull off the magic needed for that type of disparity.   I truly hope that fans and the ptb give Freeze the time he needs. We always say we will but reading the game threads says otherwise from some.

PS doesn’t mean I don’t think we can pull off the upset Sat!!!

[AUwent 3,778]

So far it's shaping up to be about what I expected (assuming we can beat the Cowbells). Question is, can we expect next year to be better--and that includes record-wise? I don't want to hear, come December, "ohhh I just hope we can show improvement, even if it doesn't show up in the record!" Every single time I've heard that (unless a coaching change has just been made), it doesn't end well. Actually, the coach has been fired the following year lol.

I am NOT expecting a playoff run next year, but 8-4 should be a reasonable goal.

Edited September 19, 2023 by AUwent

[aubiefifty 17,071]

let me just say i think all our kids have five star hearts and they will play accordingly.Auburn over the decades has risen up against impossible odds to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. not many expect us to win saturday and it will be a tall order but it is not impossible. this is the fun of the game to me because you never know which way the ball bounces. unlike the turd known as hasbeen freeze knows how to win with less. i now have hope every single time we step on the playing field. and should we fall short of victory i find comfort in the fact we are improving and great things are going to happen for us.

[AEAugirl 9,635]

11 minutes ago, BJCrawford said:

There’s an article on Al.com that indicates A & M with 14 5 stars and us zero on the field Saturday. Freeze, nor the mighty Nick Saban, could likely pull off the magic needed for that type of disparity.   I truly hope that fans and the ptb give Freeze the time he needs. We always say we will but reading the game threads says otherwise from some.

PS doesn’t mean I don’t think we can pull off the upset Sat!!!

How many 5*s did TAMU bring to Jordan Hare last year that left with a L from a broken Auburn team? 

I’m not saying we will win, but having 5*s has not been a good measure of success with Texas A&M under Jimbo.  They still need to be coached, and he’s managed to do less with more than any other coach in the SEC. 

 

[Gowebb11 9,424]

9 minutes ago, AUwent said:

So far it's shaping up to be about what I expected (assuming we can beat the Cowbells). Question is, can we expect next year to be better--and that includes record-wise? 

It’s getting harder and harder to predict CFB a week or a month out, much less next season. This time next year, every roster will be turned over substantially and so will coaching staffs. More than ever, you have to find a way to enjoy CFB in the moment at hand because there’s no way to predict what it will look like a year from now. At least that’s my approach. 

[tigeraddikt 1,621]

I respect the idea of the OP. But the "rolling over" in the score prediction thread is, imo, just reasonable extrapolation based on:

-We played one road game against a team much less talented than TAMU and looked like hot garbage on offense 90% of the time. This game is a conference game on the road in a much more hostile environment.

-Key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, while TAMU has not struggled moving the ball or scoring this year.

-Bobby Petrino has so far been a successful addition to the staff compared to offensive production 3 games in for TAMU last year.

-TAMU has boatloads more talent and depth than AU at this time. Their stacked roster was on full display last year when they finally figured out the QB position and boatraced a very solid LSU team that had a ton to play for. While that doesn't necessarily translate to automatic wins (see their recent history since Jimbo's arrival), it's certainly favorable to have the 5 stars than not. 

I think AU is going to struggle to win any of its 4 road SEC games (even Arky and Vandy), and is going to be highly competitive and in the game in the 4th quarters of each of its 4 conference home games (even UGA and Bama). Having said that, I see it playing out to about a 31-17 TAMU win. Hope I'm wrong.

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,320]

aTm lost to Miami. We went 3 time zones and beat Cal at 130AM.

Auburn W, 95-0

[JDUBB4AU 5,138]

This started with Gus not Harsin. The Gus Harsin effect. Poor recruiting , coaching , and player development. Been living it for 10 years combined 

[Aucater 152]

36 minutes ago, JDUBB4AU said:

The Gus Harsin effect. Poor recruiting

The poor O Line recruiting effect that is

[gr82be 14,502]

Better to be realistic than disappointed. I do believe they'll be more ready to play this week than previously due to the opponent. I'm avoiding the game thread if we're trailing though. It has the potential to be pretty toxic with a few posters. 

[Old fan 47 775]

3 hours ago, WarrrEagleHey said:

I think for me, I let myself get unrealistically hyped with all the positives after hiring CHF. I think I expected some kind of miracle turn around, and the last few games have brought me back to reality. CHF may be a great coach, but he can only work with what he's got, and it will take time. I'm unsure what to think about the state of our offense...I definitely was expecting that Malik Willis magic, and did not think our offense would look so poorly called and executed. So, I came out of the gate game 1 ready to shock a lot of people but trying to be a bit more balanced in what to hope for at this  point. 

Good point. For as much as Harsin ruined the program, it had actually started before he was hired. To be honest, I was not really on board with the HF hire, but AU had been talking about it for some time. Honestly, I’m not sure I place him any higher than GM as a coach. He obviously can recruit, but without proper coaching, a HS four or five star generally won’t succeed. It’s such a different game now and we see very good programs the past 6 to 8 years, a la Clemson, getting left behind, because their coach has refused to adapt. No team in the SEC, looks capable of making the NC final four, but I digress. As for the MW comparison, Liberty obviously does not play anywhere close to AU’s schedule, hence why maybe MW is barely hanging on in the NFL as a clipboard holder. I always want a HC to succeed, but even with a really good recruiting surge, that doesn’t really mean much in my opinion. Even GM had some upper tier recruiting classes early on. Unfortunately, we are  as usual, in a wait and see mode. Apologies for the ramble. We manage a win vs TAMU away, that will go a long way. WDE

[HAPvsOA 338]

2 hours ago, BJCrawford said:

There’s an article on Al.com that indicates A & M with 14 5 stars and us zero on the field Saturday. Freeze, nor the mighty Nick Saban, could likely pull off the magic needed for that type of disparity.   I truly hope that fans and the ptb give Freeze the time he needs. We always say we will but reading the game threads says otherwise from some.

PS doesn’t mean I don’t think we can pull off the upset Sat!!!

Sure, but if there is 1 person that could lose a game like this with 14 more 5-stars, it's Jimbo. 😎

For some reason, I am feeling more optimistic about this game than most. But that's mostly built on hope that Jimbo cracks under pressure, AU's defense is better than expected even with the injuries, and that at some point Freeze takes off Thorne's training wheels during this game. 

[Hank2020 3,223]

5 hours ago, ScotsAU said:

Definition: A situation in which, after a period of repetitive disappointment, fans shift from expectation positivity (assuming best case scenario) to expectation negativity (assuming the worst case scenario)

I think this fanbase has come down with it. On the score prediction thread, folks are very negative, assuming we’re going to roll over against A&M. That never would’ve happened pre-Harsin. 
 

The psychologist in me wants to discuss. What’s going on with folks here lately? Where’s the enthusiasm?

You better have an enormous waiting room.