New Offensive Coordinator - Austin Davis

[WarEagleIn2010 38]

From Wikipedia, so about as official as it gets lol....

 

Austin Davis (born June 2, 1989) is an American football coach and former quarterback who is currently the offensive coordinator for Auburn University. 

[fishepa 1,905]

I wish this would be announced soon so we can move on.

[Didba 5,256]

3 minutes ago, fishepa said:

I wish this would be announced soon so we can move on.

Longer he isn't announced the longer Trovon Reed can make in house visits with recruits.

[W.E.D 11,070]

37 minutes ago, Didba said:

Longer he isn't announced the longer Trovon Reed can make in house visits with recruits.

That's not true.

[Hank2020 3,209]

4 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

That's not true.

What is correct then. Several have said that.

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 minute ago, Hank2020 said:

What is correct then. Several have said that.

You can have 10 staffers on the road (or whatever the number is of position coaches + 2 coordinators).  Right now Reed is one of those 10 b/c we don't have an OC.  We could hire Davis and have him as one of those 10 not on the road since he's still coaching.  he could only recruit and meet with kids on campus, which wouldn't happen either.

So, hypothetically next season Trovon could recruit on the road and we just have one position coach not designated to recruit off campus.  Like say Bert Watts.  It's rare it happens.  I'm actually surprised it doesn't happen more b/c schools could essentially have full time coaches and then select full time recruiters who could be gone Fridays to games while the coaches continue to work.

[woodford 3,660]

22 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

You can have 10 staffers on the road (or whatever the number is of position coaches + 2 coordinators).  Right now Reed is one of those 10 b/c we don't have an OC.  We could hire Davis and have him as one of those 10 not on the road since he's still coaching.  he could only recruit and meet with kids on campus, which wouldn't happen either.

So, hypothetically next season Trovon could recruit on the road and we just have one position coach not designated to recruit off campus.  Like say Bert Watts.  It's rare it happens.  I'm actually surprised it doesn't happen more b/c schools could essentially have full time coaches and then select full time recruiters who could be gone Fridays to games while the coaches continue to work.

If I were a player I would want to build a relationship with the coach who would be coaching me not some hype man. 

[W.E.D 11,070]

9 minutes ago, woodford said:

If I were a player I would want to build a relationship with the coach who would be coaching me not some hype man. 

yeah, I kinda get that logic too.  But I wouldn't be surprised if you have great coach/dud recruiter it would happen more.  Like the ST/TE coach.  Is he really need to recruit 1-2 players a cycle vs Trovon?

[Didba 5,256]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

You can have 10 staffers on the road (or whatever the number is of position coaches + 2 coordinators).  Right now Reed is one of those 10 b/c we don't have an OC.  We could hire Davis and have him as one of those 10 not on the road since he's still coaching.  he could only recruit and meet with kids on campus, which wouldn't happen either.

So, hypothetically next season Trovon could recruit on the road and we just have one position coach not designated to recruit off campus.  Like say Bert Watts.  It's rare it happens.  I'm actually surprised it doesn't happen more b/c schools could essentially have full time coaches and then select full time recruiters who could be gone Fridays to games while the coaches continue to work.

TIL. Thanks for the correction.

[wareagleguy 1,393]

4 hours ago, WarEagleIn2010 said:

From Wikipedia, so about as official as it gets lol....

 

Austin Davis (born June 2, 1989) is an American football coach and former quarterback who is currently the offensive coordinator for Auburn University. 

Not buying it until Lil Mook confirms it!

[japantiger 4,051]

21 hours ago, MustardSeed said:

Lol. You really don’t get it at all do you 😂. You have ZERO ACCURATE NUMBERS TO USE 😂😂😂😂😂😂

There is one coach that has called his own plays and won a championship since 2012.    You can go further back and maybe find another; but if the answer is 2 over a 10 -15 year period it doesn't change the math/odds.  It's still a fluke and like betting against the Fed. 

Mathematically, the numerator is still 1.  The other poster listed 13 HC's; if that # was 20 or 30; the outcome metric just gets smaller (the success % then becomes less than the .0019 shown earlier)...So stop it...you're just making a stupid argument and you have to know it. 

In no sport or industry does it make since for the boss to do the subordinates job.  Harsin has enough rocks on his pile without adding another one (talent gaps, no established QB, more transfers, 6-6 record, staring at another bad year, fired OC, fired WR coach.....).   Look at his DC's record at Vandy after Mason also took on the DC job for Vandy...he drowned.  Harsin may be an absolute savant at calling games....that doesn't mean he should stop doing the job he was hired for and do the job he is supposed to hire for and develop.  

[Tigercowboy1971 22]

51 minutes ago, japantiger said:

There is one coach that has called his own plays and won a championship since 2012.    You can go further back and maybe find another; but if the answer is 2 over a 10 -15 year period it doesn't change the math/odds.  It's still a fluke and like betting against the Fed. 

Mathematically, the numerator is still 1.  The other poster listed 13 HC's; if that # was 20 or 30; the outcome metric just gets smaller (the success % then becomes less than the .0019 shown earlier)...So stop it...you're just making a stupid argument and you have to know it. 

In no sport or industry does it make since for the boss to do the subordinates job.  Harsin has enough rocks on his pile without adding another one (talent gaps, no established QB, more transfers, 6-6 record, staring at another bad year, fired OC, fired WR coach.....).   Look at his DC's record at Vandy after Mason also took on the DC job for Vandy...he drowned.  Harsin may be an absolute savant at calling games....that doesn't mean he should stop doing the job he was hired for and do the job he is supposed to hire for and develop.  

Well to honest I think Saban has won about 5 in the last 11 years and Dabo 2…it’s kind of slanted….

[Guest MustardSeed]

1 hour ago, japantiger said:

There is one coach that has called his own plays and won a championship since 2012.    You can go further back and maybe find another; but if the answer is 2 over a 10 -15 year period it doesn't change the math/odds.  It's still a fluke and like betting against the Fed. 

Mathematically, the numerator is still 1.  The other poster listed 13 HC's; if that # was 20 or 30; the outcome metric just gets smaller (the success % then becomes less than the .0019 shown earlier)...So stop it...you're just making a stupid argument and you have to know it. 

In no sport or industry does it make since for the boss to do the subordinates job.  Harsin has enough rocks on his pile without adding another one (talent gaps, no established QB, more transfers, 6-6 record, staring at another bad year, fired OC, fired WR coach.....).   Look at his DC's record at Vandy after Mason also took on the DC job for Vandy...he drowned.  Harsin may be an absolute savant at calling games....that doesn't mean he should stop doing the job he was hired for and do the job he is supposed to hire for and develop.  

Ok buddy….let’s do some real math then since you make this obscene .0019 claim based on faulty math. 
If a HC play caller has won 2 in the last  6 (Dabo has…) then that 33% of the last 6 and still 20% of the last 10. Let’s just assume the total number is in the middle of your hypothetical (and made up) 20-30 total and call it 25. That would mean 19% of FBS HCs call plays and 20% of the NCs in the last 10 years went to those guys. So even with your made up numbers, the math still proves you have no point. 😂✌️

[Potatooooooes!! 1,375]

7 hours ago, WarEagleIn2010 said:

From Wikipedia, so about as official as it gets lol....

 

Austin Davis (born June 2, 1989) is an American football coach and former quarterback who is currently the offensive coordinator for Auburn University. 

Who does these? It’s like someone always knows who we want as an assistant and then edits their page just to troll us

[japantiger 4,051]

3 minutes ago, MustardSeed said:

Ok buddy….let’s do some real math then since you make this obscene .0019 claim based on faulty math. 
If a HC play caller has won 2 in the last  6 (Dabo has…) then that 33% of the last 6 and still 20% of the last 10. Let’s just assume the total number is in the middle of your hypothetical (and made up) 20-30 total and call it 25. That would mean 19% of FBS HCs call plays and 20% of the NCs in the last 10 years went to those guys. So even with your made up numbers, the math still proves you have no point. 😂✌️

Dabo doesn't/hasn't called plays per his OCs going back to at least 2010; that means Napier, Morris, Elliot all call/called the play.  Google is your friend; took 2 minutes to find direct quotes from them and Dabo.   Try again...since you've going back to 2010; you're logic took another hit.    Jimbo beat the rather miniscule odds...what was it Dean Wormer said; oh yeah; "being fat, drunk, stupid and calling your own plays is no way to go thru life...."

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

I'm not sold on an Austin Davis hire. I think some on here are ridiculous trying to sell Davis as possibly being the next Joe Brady. I just don't see it. It's all based off of Davis being a very young coach who's coaching in the NFL. That's about the only thing they have in common.

Davis's whole coaching experience has been under Pete Carroll in the NFL. He's never coached in any capacity at the college level, even down to a GA level. Plus, he's not going to have as much control of the offense that Brady had at LSU. It's apples to oranges trying to compare Davis(or anyone else) coming here to Brady going to LSU in 2019. 

[Auctoritas 2,828]

5 hours ago, japantiger said:

There is one coach that has called his own plays and won a championship since 2012.    You can go further back and maybe find another; but if the answer is 2 over a 10 -15 year period it doesn't change the math/odds.  It's still a fluke and like betting against the Fed. 

Mathematically, the numerator is still 1.  The other poster listed 13 HC's; if that # was 20 or 30; the outcome metric just gets smaller (the success % then becomes less than the .0019 shown earlier)...So stop it...you're just making a stupid argument and you have to know it. 

In no sport or industry does it make since for the boss to do the subordinates job.  Harsin has enough rocks on his pile without adding another one (talent gaps, no established QB, more transfers, 6-6 record, staring at another bad year, fired OC, fired WR coach.....).   Look at his DC's record at Vandy after Mason also took on the DC job for Vandy...he drowned.  Harsin may be an absolute savant at calling games....that doesn't mean he should stop doing the job he was hired for and do the job he is supposed to hire for and develop.  

This is bad math, and you (hopefully) know it. You'd have to basically do an odds ratio to determine likelihood- (number of coaches that do not call plays that have won a championship/total number of coaches that do not call plays)/(number of coaches that call plays that have won a championship/total number of coaches that call plays).

More importantly, though, is that with as many variables that exist there's going to be no way to control for the confounders. For instance, as the post before me noted, 7 of the last 11 were won by either Dabo or Saban. "Well", you might say, "they don't call plays!" and you would be right, but we've seen that championships beget championships (more money, more exposure, better recruits, more...bags of cash in the night?), so it's not as simple as just saying "well they don't call plays therefore they win more."

Aside from all of that - The issue is, you have neither good denominators nor numerators. A brief scan of the last 10 years (yes, I know, it was the other guy's data) is not enough to determine whether the premise is sound. Add to that (in favor of your argument, this time) that there's a fair amount of inherent survivorship bias you need to control for - as in, are the ones that were bad at it no longer head coaches? It may bias towards your argument, but it still affects the measure. You also have to figure in coaches that did call plays at one point and have handed it over (again, another point in your favor potentially - I think it happens more that way than it does coaches picking up playcalling duties).

The biggest issue is that the outcome measure is pretty silly. Yes, we want to win championships, but only 1/130 coaches win one a year, and a ton of excellent coaches do not win one. With an outcome that rare, it would be nearly impossible to impute with certainty. A better measure would be conference championships or playoff appearances or top 10 finishes or win percentage (which would have to be weighted) or what have you. (This is aside from the fact that you have to control for the introduction of the playoff in 2014 - which is a different outcome than the BCS, which is a different outcome than media-declared national champions). If I were going to do an actual analysis, I'd probably do something like wins-over-projected or something, since expected wins takes into account a lot of the confounding variables like recruiting and home field advantage and puts it all on coaching.

Aside from all of THAT - You were doing...eh, ok...until your last paragraph. But, contrary to your argument, the top 5 playcallers in the NFL are head coaches (Reid, Peyton, McVay, Shanahan, and LeFleur). In fact, this season, 13 head coaches in the NFL called their own plays, or 40% of coaches. That league rakes in cash, and if it were a bad idea, the millionaire and billionaire owners would put the kibosh on it, and they haven't. NCAA numbers are harder to come by (there doesn't seem to be an exhaustive list, and there's just a freakin lot of coaches). But here in the SEC, Jimbo and Lane both do it, as does Heupel. Kelly has, for most of his career, and you can't call him a failure (which points to that pesky outcome measure again). Is it common? no. But the point is, there are clearly coaches at the top echelon that make it work just fine.

Edited December 15, 2021 by Auctoritas

[japantiger 4,051]

2 minutes ago, Auburnfan91 said:

I'm not sold on an Austin Davis hire. I think some on here are ridiculous trying to sell Davis as possibly being the next Joe Brady. I just don't see it. It's all based off of Davis being a very young coach who's coaching in the NFL. That's about the only thing they have in common.

Davis's whole coaching experience has been under Pete Carroll in the NFL. He's never coached in any capacity at the college level, even down to a GA level. Plus, he's not going to have as much control of the offense that Brady had at LSU. It's apples to oranges trying to compare Davis(or anyone else) coming here to Brady going to LSU in 2019. 

It certainly seems a big jump in duties...and $$.

[autigeremt 6,646]

I trust Harsin and the plan he’s trying to implement. 

[AcUmen 242]

Either method can work.  Spurrier called all his own plays in the 90's, dominated the conference, and won a NC. (Spurrier didn't even use a play-sheet but called them all from his head).

Saban is a defensive coach, so of course he isn't going to be calling offensive plays.

My only concern would be the time investment needed to study film, create a game plan, and get everything prepared.  That's a lot of work when there's other things a HC needs to be doing.  I heard Gus say once that calling plays required him to work about 40 hours during game week just watching film. If you're going to do it, it requires the HC to basically ignore defense and ST during the week.

Even though Harsin is a former OC, I do not believe he wants to go back to being the OC now.  I see him as a CEO type.  This is why the Davis hire might be risky - he's never called plays.  I do think Davis would be very good as a QB coach, but it is risky letting him call plays (imo).  But I am not getting paid $5 million to make these decisions and I am sure Harsin is aware of all of this and has a plan.

 

[Carnell 592]

43 minutes ago, Auburnfan91 said:

I'm not sold on an Austin Davis hire. I think some on here are ridiculous trying to sell Davis as possibly being the next Joe Brady. I just don't see it. It's all based off of Davis being a very young coach who's coaching in the NFL. That's about the only thing they have in common.

Davis's whole coaching experience has been under Pete Carroll in the NFL. He's never coached in any capacity at the college level, even down to a GA level. Plus, he's not going to have as much control of the offense that Brady had at LSU. It's apples to oranges trying to compare Davis(or anyone else) coming here to Brady going to LSU in 2019. 

I would like to add that Brady worked under Sean Peyton who is one of the best offensive minds and Davis has worked under Brian Schottenheimer in 2019 and 2020.  While I think Schottenhiemer is a good coach I don't believe he is the offensive mind of Peyton.

 

 

[Guest MustardSeed]

32 minutes ago, japantiger said:

Dabo doesn't/hasn't called plays per his OCs going back to at least 2010; that means Napier, Morris, Elliot all call/called the play.  Google is your friend; took 2 minutes to find direct quotes from them and Dabo.   Try again...since you've going back to 2010; you're logic took another hit.    Jimbo beat the rather miniscule odds...what was it Dean Wormer said; oh yeah; "being fat, drunk, stupid and calling your own plays is no way to go thru life...."

Ok. I didn’t look up Dabo, I just took the word on here. So here’s 2 we know for a fact. 
In 2013 the 2 teams in the NC game both had HC calling the offense. So out of the past 8 years we know there’s 2 of 16 that made it to the NC or 12.5%.  And there might be more in there but I just don’t care enough to look it up. We know Urban Meyer was heavily involved in playcalling so that would make 3 of the last 16 actually or bring it up to 18.75%…and he won a two different places. Pete Carrol is a play calling coach and he won 2. That’s just off the top of my head so I’m certain there are more. So like I ALREADY said…unless you can come up with some actual numbers and evidence of which coaches over the 10-15 years called the plays and which had nothing to do with playcalling, you have literally not a single relevant number to use and the obvious numbers without even digging in don’t even allow your stance to hold water.  It’s ok to be wrong dude. Multiple people have pointed out your math errors. There’s probably a reason for that 😉

[Strychnine 1,802]

40 minutes ago, MustardSeed said:

Ok. I didn’t look up Dabo, I just took the word on here. So here’s 2 we know for a fact. 
In 2013 the 2 teams in the NC game both had HC calling the offense. So out of the past 8 years we know there’s 2 of 16 that made it to the NC or 12.5%.  And there might be more in there but I just don’t care enough to look it up. We know Urban Meyer was heavily involved in playcalling so that would make 3 of the last 16 actually or bring it up to 18.75%…and he won a two different places. Pete Carrol is a play calling coach and he won 2. That’s just off the top of my head so I’m certain there are more. So like I ALREADY said…unless you can come up with some actual numbers and evidence of which coaches over the 10-15 years called the plays and which had nothing to do with playcalling, you have literally not a single relevant number to use and the obvious numbers without even digging in don’t even allow your stance to hold water.  It’s ok to be wrong dude. Multiple people have pointed out your math errors. There’s probably a reason for that 😉

 

Spurrier called plays, and I would say it worked out for him.

[DAG 33,997]

2 hours ago, Auburnfan91 said:

I'm not sold on an Austin Davis hire. I think some on here are ridiculous trying to sell Davis as possibly being the next Joe Brady. I just don't see it. It's all based off of Davis being a very young coach who's coaching in the NFL. That's about the only thing they have in common.

Davis's whole coaching experience has been under Pete Carroll in the NFL. He's never coached in any capacity at the college level, even down to a GA level. Plus, he's not going to have as much control of the offense that Brady had at LSU. It's apples to oranges trying to compare Davis(or anyone else) coming here to Brady going to LSU in 2019. 

You can legit find a reason to not be sold on any of the candidates provided with the exception of Grimes which was a pipe dream. Lucky for Auburn is not about us being sold. It is about what fits the coaches philosophy. 

[jknighton 310]

1 hour ago, MustardSeed said:

Pete Carrol is a play calling coach and he won 2.

Don't have a dog in this fight, but Pete Carroll has always been a Defensive coach.